Inside and outside linkage corn staged anti-season rally

From the perspective of the international market, the current increase in international corn prices has continued for several months, and the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply and demand report in September once again provided support for the corn market. Due to the US Department of Agriculture’s expectation of a corresponding reduction in US corn production, coupled with strong export demand expectations, this has led to a decrease in the US corn ending carryover inventory to a new level of 1 billion bushels in the new year, and the inventory ratio has also dropped to 15 years. The lowest level. Based on this, the international corn market continued to gain momentum. On September 17th, the December contract of the CBOT index broke through the $5/mark at one stroke, and the price climbed to a new high in two years.

Speculative funds played an important role in the rise of corn, and the current net corn holdings of the fund have already set a historical record. According to the position report released by the CFTC, the net long-term fund has reached 444089 in the week ending September 14th, a net increase of 11392 in the week. The fund continued to increase its holdings of corn, indicating that the fund is still bullish on the corn market and may continue to push up corn prices. However, with the balance of supply and demand, the market seems to be overbought in the near term. With so many net long odds, once the profit is settled, the risk cannot be ignored.

On the domestic front, Dalian Maize Futures chose to break through again after a period of consolidation. The strong rise in international corn prices has given a strong boost to the domestic market and has become the main force driving price increases. In addition, the domestic demand for corn has increased significantly, and companies have a strong bullish sentiment. The tight spot situation has not been alleviated and provides fundamental support for the continued high corn prices. On September 17, Dalian May corn futures contract, the main May corn futures contract, closed at a new high. In the short term, domestic maize prices may continue to rise even as the US corn price continues to rise and domestic funds begin to intervene significantly.

However, analysts believe that the room for rising domestic corn will still be constrained. From the perspective of fundamentals, domestic corn still faces greater market pressure. Due to the increase in planting area and the generally good weather conditions during the growing season, the high yield of Chinese corn in 2010 is a foregone conclusion. Over time, the market for new grains will gradually increase, and the supply and demand situation of domestic corn will gradually improve. At the same time, there is also a certain degree of uncertainty in demand. Although the current recovery of the breeding industry is good, with the soaring prices of raw materials, it will certainly lead to the end of demand. In addition, the market will also be suppressed by the state's policy control, and the high risk will gradually increase. Therefore, the domestic corn market still needs to be cautious, and its risk is likely to be gradually released before and after the long holiday.