Raw sugar imports into a foregone conclusion

Based on the estimated national output of 10.65 million tons of sugar produced by the Nanning Conference on February 23, the national total sugar supply in 2011 was 12.06 million tons, assuming that the expected demand remained unchanged. Without regard to the general trade import, the sugar shortage during the year was 1.94 million tons, which was basically equivalent to the annual sale of state-owned sugar last year. The State Reserve is currently less than 600,000 tons. Faced with a huge demand gap, many believe that the country has no power to regulate the domestic sugar market. But in fact, it's not.

The raw sugar processed from Brazil is converted into white sugar with the lowest price of 6,486 yuan, and the raw sugar processed from Thailand is processed into white sugar with the lowest price of 6,656 yuan. Compared with the spot price of 7230 yuan in Nanning, the highest price difference is 744 yuan and the minimum difference is 574 yuan. If the calculation is based on the next 22 cents of New York's raw sugar drop target, which is already under 6,000 yuan, there is ample room for import profits, and raw sugar imports have become possible. Without the need for policy support, the government has the ability to import raw sugar through market measures to regulate and cover the domestic sugar market and cover the state reserve sugar inventory.

Due to the firm support of domestic spot prices and other reasons, Zheng Sugar and New York's raw sugar have seen a rare departure from the short-term internal trend. Zheng Sugar's strong confidence comes from strong spot prices, and strong spot price confidence stems from the huge supply and demand gap during the year. However, when New York's raw sugar prices fall out of space, making imports operative, the confidence factor supporting the firmness of domestic spot prices will no longer exist. We believe that New York's raw sugar fell by the first target at 22 cents, a difference of 5.16 cents from the overnight sugar of 27.16 cents, a decrease of nearly 20%. However, since the import of raw sugar to supplement the domestic market is not an overnight event, the trend of Zheng sugar will show a downward trend of resistance, and the deviation from the trend of New York's raw sugar will continue. There have been signs this week that Zheng Sugar was weak on Monday with the surge in raw sugar in New York last weekend. Defensiveness is bound to be stagnant. Zheng sugar SR1109 still has the possibility to explore the low of 6,200 yuan, this factor can not be ruled out, but it needs the cooperation of factors such as news surface and the trend of raw sugar in New York.

Zheng sugar fell below 6,800 yuan to build a strategic short position. Zheng sugar SR1109 has continued to rebound recently, the pattern seems to have signs of stability, but in the case of New York's raw sugar weakened, dragged down by the probability of it is relatively large, it can only be judged as a weak rebound. Judging from the market trend, many parties have moved the defensive area from 6,900 yuan to 6,800 yuan, and 6,800 yuan is also a lifeline for many parties. If you hold, then the room for growth is still in place, if the loss of the code means 600 yuan in the decline. Therefore, both the long and short sides did not dare to relax.

Changes in the trend of raw sugar will inevitably affect the domestic sugar market. The next month, Brazil will begin to increase its global supply of raw materials, and the timing of domestic imports to cover the national reserve may be chosen at this point in time.