"Clenbuterol" incident short-term shocks high pig prices

If it weren’t for the sudden “Clenbuterol” incident, the recent pork and meat prices may continue to climb. The reporter learned that due to the short-term impact of the "lean meat" incident, the national pork price and meat price have fallen from a high of more than 30 months. However, people in the industry generally believe that the trend of rising prices has not changed in the coming months.

According to the law of previous years, pig prices generally fell after the Spring Festival as the demand for social rigidity decreased, but they did not fall or rise after this year's holiday. China Animal Husbandry Association deputy secretary-general Ma Wei was interviewed by the reporter of the Economic Information Daily. The price of live pigs in 2009 and 2010 both fell in the first half of the year and rose in the second half of the year, but prices have been increasing since 2011. This is " Abnormal phenomenon.

According to the Xinhua News Agency's national agricultural and sideline products and agricultural materials price system monitoring, since the beginning of June 2010, the nation’s pork retail prices have risen significantly. During the Spring Festival period in 2011, the price of pig buttock meat has reached the highest point since 2009 of 12.82 yuan per catty. The cumulative increase was 49.2%. After a short period of fall after the Spring Festival, the price of pork quickly stabilized at high levels. In recent days, pork prices in some provinces, districts and cities have shown signs of rising. According to data from Sogou.com, as of the beginning of March, pork prices and meat prices hit new highs in 31 and 32 months. In particular, the price of piglets has risen vertically and the price of piglets has risen by 50% in just one month.

Xinhua News Agency economic analysts recently learned that Shandong, Hunan, Hebei, Jilin, Liaoning, Shanxi and other major pig-breeding provinces learned that the low prices in the first half of 2010 caused some farmers to withdraw from the market, high aquaculture costs, and centralized slaughter before the Spring Festival. Together, these factors have led to tight supply of live pigs and higher prices.

However, the "Clenbuterol" incident suddenly disrupted the rhythm of price increases. According to data from Sogou.com, as of March 20, the average price of slaughter pigs in the country has fallen by 2.02% per week, which is the week that has fallen the most in recent months. The enthusiasm of the country's piglet restocking was immediately shifted by the impact of the "lean-lean" event, ending a five-week surge, which fell 3.49% a week.

Feng Yonghui, Chief Analyst of Sogou.com, told the Economic Information Daily that the price of piglets has just started to rise and that the buoyant enthusiasm has just begun to improve. The incident of “lean and fine meats” has occurred. Once again, the suppression of the bar will affect 4 to 5 After the month of supply.

However, Guo Huiyong, an analyst at Oriental Agri Consulting Co., Ltd., told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that in the context of insufficient supply, the "Clenbuterol" incident was only a short-term effect and would not exceed one month. In the first half of this year, hog prices will also increase, and it is possible to rise from the current 15 yuan per kilogram to 16 yuan.

Tan Xiaoxiao, an analyst with the Xinhua News Agency, also expects that pork prices will follow the trend of hog prices in the first half of the year and there is still room for growth. In the off-season pork consumption in July and August, the price of pork may drop slightly, but the possibility of a sharp drop is unlikely.

In the short term, the decline in pig prices brought about by the “lean meat” incident has also affected the profitability of pig-raising companies.

"At present, corporate profits are rapidly shrinking." Feng Yonghui said that the "lean meat" incident weighed on demand, pig prices fell and the industry suffered losses. According to his rough estimate, the country slaughtered more than 1.5 million hogs per day, more than 10 million pigs per week, and the pig price fell by an average of 0.3 yuan/kg in the past week, which means that only one week of the national pig industry may have been lost. More than 300 million yuan.

Ma Yong believes that there are "recessive crises" in the profitability of pig-breeding companies. First, food prices, the market expects that global food prices will continue to rise this year. Second, labor resources are depleted and labor costs are rising. These two factors make everyone not optimistic about future profitability levels.