Edible oil reserves increase again, autumn grain is expected to be bullish

When agricultural products (18.13, 0.33, 1.85%) rise, will the edible oil price increase? As the two quarters approached, edible oil gradually emerged from the off-season period of summer consumption. Recently, some cities in Shanghai, Shandong, and other cities have already received news of rising edible oil prices. Yesterday, the news of the giant oil companies of Yihai Kerry and COFCO to Nandu were "not issued yet."

However, the price increase does not seem to be traceable, the futures market, oil and fat categories have continued to rise for more than a month.

Not only is the "oil bottle," but the "fever" of agricultural products has already been manifested early. Small packaged rice, sugar, flour and other products have risen in price. The reduction in summer grain production and the expected increase in autumn grain production due to weather factors have provided soil for the extension of agricultural products. According to industry sources, natural disasters have caused production cuts, inflation expectations, and speculative speculation in funds. The three factors have superimposed on the uncertainties in the supply of grain and pushed up grain prices.

Edible oil gains momentum

The market has recently heard news of rising edible oil prices. For example, peanut oil in Jinan 5L has risen from 89.9 yuan/barrel to 93.9 yuan/barrel. The person in charge of the Wal-Mart supermarket told Shanghai media that the supermarket has received verbal notice from most edible oil suppliers to raise prices. In some places, 3%-4% news of Golden Dragon Fish and Fortune Gate was reported.

However, this news was denied by COFCO and Yihai Kerry. "Our current factory price has not been adjusted, and it is not ruled out that dealers or supermarkets have adjusted the terminal prices." The relevant person in charge of Yihai Kerry told Nandu that in order to balance the relationship between market competition and cost-benefit, it is very cautious for companies to adjust prices, and each company's ability to withstand rising costs is also different. It has been admitted that some time ago. The futures market has undergone major changes and will affect the company’s costs. The company is currently observing. The person in charge of grain oil marketing in China also told reporters that the company did not issue a price adjustment notice and it was not clear where the terminal price adjustment information came from. It said that attention has been paid to changes in prices such as futures, but the price of oil in its small packaging products has not been adjusted, and dealers generally do not adjust prices by themselves.

In the first half of the general increase in agricultural products, edible oil is one of the few categories that has remained stable and even has reduced prices. However, from July to now, there have been significant changes in both the futures market and even the spot market. This is why the outside world expects the adjustment of oil prices.

Oriental AIG oil analyst Chen Lina said that the spot price of soybean oil has gone up a lot. Soybean grade 4 bulk oil is taken as an example. In early July, it was 7,000 yuan per ton, which is now around 7,600 yuan per ton. "Small packaging oil will surely rise. Generally speaking, after a certain period of rising oil prices, small packaged oil prices will be raised once. On the one hand, bulk oil has risen by about 700 yuan per ton since July. On the other hand, the Mid-Autumn Festival As the National Day approaches the market there is a stocking demand and there will be a release of the product, which may also cause a certain price increase."

The domestic oils and fats market is highly dependent on imported soybeans. As the price of foreign bean futures continues to rise, the cost of domestic imports continues to rise, creating pressure on soybean oil prices. According to the monitoring data of China Grease Network, the cost of US beans (arrival to Hong Kong in January 2011) was 3,365 yuan per ton on July 1, 2010, and rose to 3,648 yuan per ton on July 30, as of August. On the 18th, the cost of arrival in Hong Kong has risen to 3,923 yuan per ton. The monthly increase was 16.6%.

According to industry analysts, after more than a month of increase, the inventory of oil refineries in most regions has been digested to varying degrees, and the overall inventory has dropped significantly. This has brought confidence and reason for the price of oil refineries. Coupled with the bullish expectations of the market outlook, even if the futures market correction, its price attitude remains firm.

Guo Qingbao, editor-in-chief of China Grease Network, also stated that from the perspective of price transmission, gross oil prices have been rising for more than a month, and the price of small packaged cooking oil is not far off. However, the price increase should not be very high, because when the previous period of gross oil fell, small packages did not drop much. After entering September, new soybeans will also be launched in volume this year. Judging from the current market conditions, the upward trend of agricultural product prices has already been formed, so the price of oil products will also rise with the market for a long time. However, in October, there will be a correction due to the seasonal listing of new beans, which will continue to rise afterwards.

Autumn grain bullish expectations

Not only is the "oil bottle," but the "fever" of agricultural products has already been manifested early. Before packaging edible oils in small packages, small packages of rice, sugar and other products have risen. A staff member of Wal-Mart in Beijing said that the recent increase in the price of small packaging rice was relatively high. The small package rice of 5 kg of Qiheyuan had gone up by 5 or so, and the long-term confrontation between Jinlongyu and Fulinmen did not increase significantly. Yang Hong, deputy general manager of the China National Grains and Oils (Holdings) Co., Ltd. and general manager of the rice business department, said in an exclusive interview with the reporter that COFCO will strictly follow the country’s grain purchase price guidance, and COFCO has its own planting base, all of which are COFCO's own The team is operating, so COFCO will not increase the overall cost due to the increase in upstream costs.

However, other brands have generally risen by about two. A pound of bulk rice rose by about 2-3 cents, sugar rose by about 7 hairs. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, in July, the retail price of small-package rice rose by 7.6% year-on-year. From August 9 to 15, among 39 kinds of major edible agricultural products, there were 39 kinds of price increase, which accounted for 68.4%.

In China, grain is divided into summer grains and autumn grains according to the harvest season, of which summer grains account for about 23% of the total grain output, and the rest are mainly autumn grains. 90% of the summer grain is composed of wheat, and the main components of the autumn grain are rice and corn. The drought in the southwest region in the previous period, the low temperature and rainfall in the northern part, and the storm flood in the later period affected the market. The market is generally expected to reduce the production of autumn grain this year. This year, extreme weather has frequently occurred in China, resulting in the first reduction of summer grain production in 6 years, which makes people expect a strong rise in food prices. Farmers are reluctant to sell, dealers sow grain and other phenomena have pushed up grain prices.

According to industry insiders, natural disasters have caused production cuts, inflation expectations, and speculative speculation in funds. Three factors have superimposed the uncertainties on the grain supply side, and autumn grain is expected to be strong. According to monitoring by the National Development and Reform Commission, in the first half of this year, the average purchase price of three grains of rice, wheat, and corn increased by 12.3% over the same period of last year. In July, the purchase price of wheat has stabilized, but the purchase prices of rice and corn continue to rise.

Food security concerns

The increase in prices has brought benefits to farmers, but there are also hidden concerns about food security: Russia's ban on exports of wheat and the European drought caused the soaring of international wheat prices, frequent domestic natural disasters, frequent speculation of upstream raw grains, and processing companies receiving two prices Extruded, foreign-funded enterprises accelerated their troops.

According to industry sources, the most worrying issue this year is wheat and rice, especially wheat. According to its introduction, in the year 2009, the temporary storage of wheat has begun to auction, in 2010 because of the sharp rise in wheat prices, after a small number of acquisitions, the state suspended the purchase of temporary reserves of wheat, which means that the current temporary stocks have been small, the next year's wheat prices To continue rising, the problem is more serious. Wheat, as the most critical strategic grain reserve, is the one that has the greatest impact on the market in all breeds.

According to Ma Wenfeng, an agricultural analyst with Eastern Iger, as the price of wheat keeps rising, most small and medium-sized flour processing companies have been forced into desperation and have stopped production. It is understood that the cost of raw grains accounts for 90% of the production costs of the flour processing enterprises. This year's wheat market has witnessed diversification of the main acquisition entities. The phenomenon of state-owned enterprises and foreign capital looting grain has occurred from time to time, and small enterprises are unable to compete.

According to Li Guoxiang, deputy director of the Rural Macroeconomic Department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, there are many uncertainties in the autumn grain harvest and the form is very serious. In the long run, the most important contradiction is the contradiction between shortages of agricultural resources such as arable land and water resources and increasing demand for agricultural products. Li Guoxiang stated that the most important thing at present is to stabilize expectations. The prices of food, agricultural products, and prices of agricultural production materials are all rising. If instability is expected, farmers will be reluctant to sell, and the upper reaches will be hoarded. With speculation, grain prices will only continue to rise.

Liu Hezhong, president of the Rice Branch of the China Grain Association, is also relatively optimistic about the trend of grain prices. He said that grain prices are regulated by the state, and the overall regulation and control is to maintain the enthusiasm of grain farmers, and the national policy has been steadily increasing (price). . There have been many disasters in China this year, but prices will still not fluctuate greatly in light of the country's basic conditions.