State acquisition rumors prevailing corn pressure upstream

Dalian corn futures opened higher and went higher in the morning on the 12th. The main contract of 1209 was reported at 2250 yuan/ton, up by 9 yuan/ton. Affected by the rumors of the acquisition of corn by the State Reserve, Changyang even opened its corn market higher above the 5, 10, and 20-day moving average last Friday. Close to the holiday season, companies are more active in stocking than before, and there is a slight start to the support price. Corn is expected to usher in an inflection point. However, macro-complexity makes the commodity market lack a sense of direction and the upside is still limited.

USDA corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed lower on the 9th, and the most active CBOT March corn futures closed down 6 cents to close at 5.94 1/4 US dollars. / Bushels.

The USDA raised its 2011/2012 US corn ending stocks forecast to 848 million bushels slightly from 843 million bushels in November, and analysts expect a median of 838 million bushels. The USDA lowered its food, seeds and industrial use of corn by an estimated 5 million bushels to 4.6 billion bushels. USDA expects China's corn end-stock to be 59.97 million tons, which is higher than the 51.72 million tons expected in November. The USDA also increased its global ending stocks for corn, from which the previous 121.6 million tons were raised to 127.2 million tons.

Domestically, the market rumors that the state plans to acquire 10 million tons of central reserve corn in the northeast region, among which the third dry grain price in Jilin Province is 2,000 yuan/ton, Heilongjiang 1960 yuan/ton, Liaoning Province and Inner Mongolia 2040 yuan/ton, and the other is 50 yuan per ton. Yuan acquisition cost is expected to be 40 yuan/ton between each level. Although the official documents have not been seen at present, the market has been buzzing, and there are reports that the country is in the process of approval and credibility is high. If the rumors are true, this may support the market conditions in the near future, and the corn market may accelerate its pace of inflection.

In terms of spot, affected by the country’s impending temporary reserve of corn purchase news and relatively low inventory, the Guangdong port corn price rebounded at the end of last week. Currently, the main transaction price of Liaoning corn in the port is 2390-2410 yuan/ton, and the future is 2410 yuan/year. There are also tons of transactions. Shandong Weifang corn corn purchase price of 1.21 yuan / kg, water 14% or less. The purchase price of corn purchased by the local reserve warehouse in Zhangjiakou, Hebei Province was 1.05 yuan/kg. A local starch plant in Baoding, Hebei province, purchased wet corn at a price of 0.82 yuan/kg and a moisture content of 30%.

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