It has been reported on these two days that China's arable land seems to have risen. "Agricultural land is food." This is the hard truth in many people's eyes. Therefore, "1.8 billion mu of cultivated land" equals "food security" seems to have become a "consensus" of Chinese society. Apart from rejoicing, the author did not dare to agree.
There are many factors that affect food production and food security. In the author's opinion, the most important ones are:
First, the advancement of agricultural science and technology. The history of agricultural development in China and agricultural advanced countries proves that the increase in the total production of grain mainly depends on the technical progress of agriculture. Over the past 100 years, the application and continuous improvement of technologies such as seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, cultivation, irrigation, and agricultural machinery have been the main driving forces for the increase in agricultural production efficiency and output. This is by no means an expansion of cultivated area. In the 1950s, China had an area of ​​1.6 billion mu of arable land, a population of 600 million, and a population of 2.7 mu per capita. People have eaten soothing food. Today, more than half a century ago, the country has an area of ​​1.8 million mu of arable land, a population of 1.4 billion, and 1.3 farmland per capita. Mu is less than half of the original, but “fat food and clothing†depends on technological progress. Without the input of agriculture and technological progress, no amount of arable land can guarantee food security. China is a country with moderately advanced agriculture. According to the development experience of agricultural advanced countries, it can rely on traditional technologies to increase its annual yield by 1.5%. If this is combined with the comprehensive application of biotechnology, information technology, and precision agriculture technology, this speed will increase. Can be greatly improved, far exceeding the rate of population increase. Some foreign companies believe that the world's agricultural production in the next 20-30 years can double, which still depends on technology.
Second, the price of agricultural products has risen. When the input-output ratio of an industry cannot reach the expected return, investment will naturally decrease, and industrial efficiency and industrialization naturally lag behind. China's agricultural industry is exactly this situation. Now that the difference between the income levels of the agricultural industry and other industries is too disparate, many cultivated lands have been abandoned, inputs have been reduced, and management has been extensive. The enthusiasm of farmers for engaging in grain production has been greatly affected. If the price of agricultural products is properly raised, it will greatly stimulate the enthusiasm of farmers for agricultural production and increase the degree of agricultural investment. Under the existing technological conditions, due to the increase in the degree of investment and the strengthening of management, the output of agricultural products will increase by approximately 15% in the short term; in the medium to long term, it will also stimulate the research, development, and application of new technologies and accelerate the production efficiency of the agricultural industry. The promotion and sustainable development of power.
Third, the basic construction of farmland and the full use of water resources. Due to the long-term indebtedness of basic construction of farmland, especially water conservancy facilities and capabilities, after the production has reached the households, the ability of drought and flood protection of cultivated land in China has been greatly reduced at the original limited level. On the one hand, the north and west of China have long-term drought and lack of water, and production is constrained. On the other hand, the south is often plagued by plagues and large amounts of water resources are wasted. If the "South-to-North Water Diversion Project" and "East Water Diversion Project" (nothing is impossible) are implemented, the water-saving technology of sprinkler irrigation and drip irrigation can be promoted. In the long-term drought-prone areas in northern and western China, the output can exceed 50%. The potential for yield increase, and in the western region, can open up hundreds of millions of acres of additional farmland.
To sum up, the basic construction of farmland and the construction of water conservancy facilities can bring about one third of the room for improvement in the country's agriculture. The increase in grain prices can greatly promote agricultural investment and production enthusiasm and can bring about 15% The promotion, and the improvement of agricultural investment and technology, can further promote the improvement of agricultural production efficiency and resource utilization for a long time, and promote the sustainable development of agriculture.
Of course, the amount of arable land also affects agricultural production and food security, but it is still a secondary position compared with the above three factors. Moreover, the impact of quality factors on cultivated land is no less than the impact of quantity.
The area of ​​arable land in China is limited, and the increase in population and economic development is "infinite." If grain production and agricultural development are pinned on the expansion of cultivated land or the amount of land, it will only lead to a dead end. The production of agriculture and food is a competition between scientific and technological content and industrial efficiency, rather than competition in the area of ​​arable land. This is similar to the competition for the number of peasants who are not farming. This is a truth. If we believe that merely maintaining “1.8 billion mu of arable land†can guarantee food security, it is just as safe as guaranteeing food security through the protection of 800 million farmers.
China's high-speed rail and expressways can reach one step at a time, extending in all directions. This is because there is interest to drive; the national talk of the "South-to-North Water Transfer Project" has been N years and N years, and it is still in the water and mirrors in the water. If China is serious about agriculture, have you believed it? I don't believe it anyway.
Investment needs to be sustained and technology needs to be accumulated. If food is poorly harvested, look at agriculture, otherwise let it go and you will not have long-term development protection for agriculture;
Agricultural science and technology depend on the government and the society as a whole. Investment requires the establishment of a market mechanism. If China continues to establish agricultural industries after the founding of the country and uses rural areas to raise cities, through the inequality in the exchange of value of industrial and agricultural products to continue to "exploit" agriculture, the investment that agriculture attracts is empty talk. China's agriculture will never have a well-developed day's conclusion. : 1.8 billion mu of arable land is still required, but more is the social and psychological needs. Instead of guaranteeing the amount of cultivated land, it is better to maintain the proportion of investment in agricultural science and technology than to maintain the quality of farmland basic construction, and it is better to raise the price of agricultural products.
If agricultural production is a profitable industry, 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land and food security will naturally be guaranteed.
About the author: Liu Shi, currently Pioneer Liangcao International Co., Ltd., President of China. Pioneer is a subsidiary company of DuPont China Group Co., Ltd.
There are many factors that affect food production and food security. In the author's opinion, the most important ones are:
First, the advancement of agricultural science and technology. The history of agricultural development in China and agricultural advanced countries proves that the increase in the total production of grain mainly depends on the technical progress of agriculture. Over the past 100 years, the application and continuous improvement of technologies such as seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, cultivation, irrigation, and agricultural machinery have been the main driving forces for the increase in agricultural production efficiency and output. This is by no means an expansion of cultivated area. In the 1950s, China had an area of ​​1.6 billion mu of arable land, a population of 600 million, and a population of 2.7 mu per capita. People have eaten soothing food. Today, more than half a century ago, the country has an area of ​​1.8 million mu of arable land, a population of 1.4 billion, and 1.3 farmland per capita. Mu is less than half of the original, but “fat food and clothing†depends on technological progress. Without the input of agriculture and technological progress, no amount of arable land can guarantee food security. China is a country with moderately advanced agriculture. According to the development experience of agricultural advanced countries, it can rely on traditional technologies to increase its annual yield by 1.5%. If this is combined with the comprehensive application of biotechnology, information technology, and precision agriculture technology, this speed will increase. Can be greatly improved, far exceeding the rate of population increase. Some foreign companies believe that the world's agricultural production in the next 20-30 years can double, which still depends on technology.
Second, the price of agricultural products has risen. When the input-output ratio of an industry cannot reach the expected return, investment will naturally decrease, and industrial efficiency and industrialization naturally lag behind. China's agricultural industry is exactly this situation. Now that the difference between the income levels of the agricultural industry and other industries is too disparate, many cultivated lands have been abandoned, inputs have been reduced, and management has been extensive. The enthusiasm of farmers for engaging in grain production has been greatly affected. If the price of agricultural products is properly raised, it will greatly stimulate the enthusiasm of farmers for agricultural production and increase the degree of agricultural investment. Under the existing technological conditions, due to the increase in the degree of investment and the strengthening of management, the output of agricultural products will increase by approximately 15% in the short term; in the medium to long term, it will also stimulate the research, development, and application of new technologies and accelerate the production efficiency of the agricultural industry. The promotion and sustainable development of power.
Third, the basic construction of farmland and the full use of water resources. Due to the long-term indebtedness of basic construction of farmland, especially water conservancy facilities and capabilities, after the production has reached the households, the ability of drought and flood protection of cultivated land in China has been greatly reduced at the original limited level. On the one hand, the north and west of China have long-term drought and lack of water, and production is constrained. On the other hand, the south is often plagued by plagues and large amounts of water resources are wasted. If the "South-to-North Water Diversion Project" and "East Water Diversion Project" (nothing is impossible) are implemented, the water-saving technology of sprinkler irrigation and drip irrigation can be promoted. In the long-term drought-prone areas in northern and western China, the output can exceed 50%. The potential for yield increase, and in the western region, can open up hundreds of millions of acres of additional farmland.
To sum up, the basic construction of farmland and the construction of water conservancy facilities can bring about one third of the room for improvement in the country's agriculture. The increase in grain prices can greatly promote agricultural investment and production enthusiasm and can bring about 15% The promotion, and the improvement of agricultural investment and technology, can further promote the improvement of agricultural production efficiency and resource utilization for a long time, and promote the sustainable development of agriculture.
Of course, the amount of arable land also affects agricultural production and food security, but it is still a secondary position compared with the above three factors. Moreover, the impact of quality factors on cultivated land is no less than the impact of quantity.
The area of ​​arable land in China is limited, and the increase in population and economic development is "infinite." If grain production and agricultural development are pinned on the expansion of cultivated land or the amount of land, it will only lead to a dead end. The production of agriculture and food is a competition between scientific and technological content and industrial efficiency, rather than competition in the area of ​​arable land. This is similar to the competition for the number of peasants who are not farming. This is a truth. If we believe that merely maintaining “1.8 billion mu of arable land†can guarantee food security, it is just as safe as guaranteeing food security through the protection of 800 million farmers.
China's high-speed rail and expressways can reach one step at a time, extending in all directions. This is because there is interest to drive; the national talk of the "South-to-North Water Transfer Project" has been N years and N years, and it is still in the water and mirrors in the water. If China is serious about agriculture, have you believed it? I don't believe it anyway.
Investment needs to be sustained and technology needs to be accumulated. If food is poorly harvested, look at agriculture, otherwise let it go and you will not have long-term development protection for agriculture;
Agricultural science and technology depend on the government and the society as a whole. Investment requires the establishment of a market mechanism. If China continues to establish agricultural industries after the founding of the country and uses rural areas to raise cities, through the inequality in the exchange of value of industrial and agricultural products to continue to "exploit" agriculture, the investment that agriculture attracts is empty talk. China's agriculture will never have a well-developed day's conclusion. : 1.8 billion mu of arable land is still required, but more is the social and psychological needs. Instead of guaranteeing the amount of cultivated land, it is better to maintain the proportion of investment in agricultural science and technology than to maintain the quality of farmland basic construction, and it is better to raise the price of agricultural products.
If agricultural production is a profitable industry, 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land and food security will naturally be guaranteed.
About the author: Liu Shi, currently Pioneer Liangcao International Co., Ltd., President of China. Pioneer is a subsidiary company of DuPont China Group Co., Ltd.
The so-called pharmaceutical intermediates are actually some chemical raw materials or chemical products used in the pharmaceutical synthesis process. This chemical product does not require a production license for medicines, and can be produced in ordinary chemical plants. As long as it reaches a certain level, it can be used for the synthesis of medicines.
Explanation: Some chemicals used in drug synthesis
Purpose: Synthesis of medicines
Features: low profitability of production intermediates
Representative: fluorine-containing pyridines, etc.
Field: Medicine
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