Scientists predict that Zika will affect one-third of the world's population

Scientists predict that Zika will affect one-third of the world's population

September 14, 2016 Source: China Youth Daily

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Since being discovered for the first time in monkeys in the forests of Uganda, Zika virus has been isolated from humans for more than 70 years. This time, it has come back again, and it is so powerful that people can't help but worry: Will this virus swept the human world?
 
This is indeed a problem that scientists have to face now. In early August of this year, a number of cases of Zika virus infection were discovered in Florida, USA. Since then, the US Food and Drug Administration has decided to systematically test the donated blood nationwide. US President Barack Obama once again urged Congress to launch a contingency fund to "confront the threat of Zika." In Asia, the scope of the Zika card epidemic in Singapore has expanded again. Officials have confirmed that 82 cases of Zika were infected. At the same time, 12 Zika cases were found in Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. Given that the symptoms of Zika virus infection are not readily detectable in most cases - only about a quarter of patients infected with Zika virus will show significant symptoms - the extent of this virus transmission may be seriously underestimated.
 
Scientists recently completed the first prediction of the spread of the Zika epidemic, and published the results in the September 1st British medical journal Lancet Infectious Diseases. Projections indicate that 2.6 million people—about one-third of the world's total population—are living in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region where Zika may spread.
 
At present, people infected with the virus are still concentrated in the Americas, especially Brazil, and the emerging virus-affected area of ​​Miami, USA. However, the researchers stressed that "more and more travelers are carrying the virus around the world", "if as a virus Mosquitoes in the media can infect each other by biting travelers in an environment suitable for virus reproduction, and then new viruses may be created."
 
The estimates for this study include the number of travelers returning from the American epidemic, local climatic conditions, seasonal characteristics, population density, and per capita health consumption, as well as the extent of dengue virus transmission in the region – this is The main medium of the Zika virus is Aedes mosquito.
 
Overall, 70% of travelers from the Americas epidemic to Africa and the Asia-Pacific region will eventually return to 10 countries, with an average of 238,415 people per year in China, 179,926 in Japan, and 106,365 in Israel. 96,430 people.
 
Dr. Kamran Han, the research leader, pointed out: "About 2.6 million people live in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. The local mosquito species and the climatic conditions in the region are suitable for Zika transmission. In theory, Zika virus It is likely to spread in these areas."
 
According to researchers, the countries most likely to be affected by the imported Zika virus are ranked India (1.2 billion people may be infected), China (242 million), Indonesia (197 million), Nigeria (178 million), Pakistan (16800) 10,000), Bangladesh (163 million), and Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand and many African countries are also directly threatened.
 
The researchers said that given China's health care system is more efficient, China is relatively less likely to face large-scale infections. Dr. Kamran Han wrote in his report: "Although China has received many travelers returning from the epidemic area, and most of them live in areas where there is a risk of viral transmission, China has invested far in public health. Far higher than other countries."
 
And Angola may be the weakest country to protect Zika. At present, Zika virus has been discovered in Cape Verde, and the virus has also appeared in Guinea-Bissau.

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