During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the decline in the price of food production is more likely to occur, and it will drop before the retail price of grain peaks, and the magnitude will be greater than the latter. The parties concerned should do a good job of preparations for collecting and storing funds, warehousing, exchange, etc., maintaining the basic stability of grain prices and protecting the interests of farmers.
Basic food prices upward momentum endogenous release <br> <br> 30 years since reform and opening up, China's grain production price index and retail price index (both fixed base index) has undergone two complete long fluctuation period (1978 - 1991 and From 1992 to 2002, the current stage is in the rising stage of the third long-term volatility cycle (2003-2010).
The period of price fluctuations in 1978-1991 lasted for 14 years, continued to rise for 11 years, and prices fell for two years. During the period, the production price rose by 248.1%, which was substantially higher than the retail price, but this was mainly because the increase in grain consumer prices in China prior to 1992 was strictly controlled by the national plan, and the price adjustment potential of some market adjustments did not come into play. The duration of the volatility cycle for 1992-2002 was 11 years, and the price continued to rise for 5 years, with a continuous fall time of 6 years. During the period, the maximum increase in the retail price index was as high as 240.96%, which significantly exceeded the production index. It shows that after the grain marketization reforms were substantially advanced, the rising potential of the market regulation part of the grain prices was fully released. The declines of both price indexes are far more than the largest drop in the previous cycle, and the negative effects of market price adjustment by purely market mechanisms are apparent.
From the rising stage of the food price volatility cycle in 2003-2010, the price of grain has been rising for eight years, and the rate of increase has slowed down. The difference in the growth rate of the two indices is also very small. This shows that at the current stage in the food market in China where the market mechanism has played a leading role in resource allocation, the endogenous rising power of food prices has basically been released, and the increase in food prices depends more on the influence of external factors, such as per capita income from economic growth. The increase has resulted in the need to improve the dietary structure, the increase in prices of production materials and the impact of rising labor costs.
Domestic grain prices downward pressure <br> <br> the new century, China's investment in agriculture continued to increase substantially, the central government spent "three rural" from 2004's 262.6 billion yuan rapid increase of 1 trillion yuan in 2011 About the average annual growth rate is as high as 21%, which significantly exceeds the growth rate of GPD over the same period. Among them, the “four subsidy†funds for grain direct subsidies, fine seed subsidies, agricultural machinery purchase subsidies, and comprehensive subsidies for agricultural resources were expanded from 14.5 billion yuan in 2004 to 2011. In the year 140.6 billion yuan. In addition, in 2010, the government has also significantly increased the minimum grain purchase price. In 2011, China’s total grain output reached a record 571.21 million tons, an increase of 4.5% over the previous year, and achieved the eighth consecutive year of production increase. It is also the fourth consecutive year that the output has stabilized at over 500 million tons, and the grain supply and the country’s grain reserves have been compared. adequate. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, if there is no major natural disaster, the balance of supply and demand for food has a solid basis for production and reserves.
According to the trend analysis of the profit rate of grain costs, the average cost-to-cost profit margins of China's three types of grain in 2006-2011 were 34.83%, 38.49%, 33.14%, 32.04%, 33.77%, and 31.07%, respectively, which was not only significantly higher than the growth rate of GPD over the same period. Speed, but far higher than the agricultural growth over the same period. Obviously, the high profitability of grain production will attract a lot of social capital to increase food production and supply, thereby lowering food prices and returning its profit margin to the average social profit rate. At the same time, a large amount of resources are devoted to the planting industry with low technological content, which leads to an overall decrease in the efficiency of resource allocation, affects the economic growth rate, reduces the growth rate of residents' income, and thus restrains the growth of grain consumption demand, which constitutes a greater pressure for food prices to fall.
During the international food prices down "five", the basis of the economic recovery in developed countries in Europe, America, Japan and other remains fragile, the European debt crisis may continue to deteriorate, the US unemployment rate is still hovering high, slow global per capita income growth, food consumption demand The possibility of a substantial increase is small. The total food supply, especially in developing countries, has a relatively large growth potential. When the prices of food crops are high, the interests will drive farmers in developing countries to grow food, open up new land, expand the area for grain cultivation, and increase the total grain output. Increase food supply.
In addition, high international food stocks will also curb food price increases. World food ending stocks in 2009/2010 reached 457 million tons, the highest level in eight years. At present, the global food stocks consumption ratio is about 20.9%, which is much higher than the safety level of 17%, and will also restrain the increase in food prices. Therefore, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the total international grain supply will exceed the total demand, which will bring greater pressure on the international food price market in the next 3-5 years. Soybean prices may be lowered to 400 USD/ton again. The price of corn may be It will fall below $170/ton, and wheat prices will likely drop to as low as $200/ton. Affected by the drop in food prices on the international market, domestic food prices, especially soybean prices, will drop significantly, driving down the prices of other foods.
Basic food prices upward momentum endogenous release <br> <br> 30 years since reform and opening up, China's grain production price index and retail price index (both fixed base index) has undergone two complete long fluctuation period (1978 - 1991 and From 1992 to 2002, the current stage is in the rising stage of the third long-term volatility cycle (2003-2010).
The period of price fluctuations in 1978-1991 lasted for 14 years, continued to rise for 11 years, and prices fell for two years. During the period, the production price rose by 248.1%, which was substantially higher than the retail price, but this was mainly because the increase in grain consumer prices in China prior to 1992 was strictly controlled by the national plan, and the price adjustment potential of some market adjustments did not come into play. The duration of the volatility cycle for 1992-2002 was 11 years, and the price continued to rise for 5 years, with a continuous fall time of 6 years. During the period, the maximum increase in the retail price index was as high as 240.96%, which significantly exceeded the production index. It shows that after the grain marketization reforms were substantially advanced, the rising potential of the market regulation part of the grain prices was fully released. The declines of both price indexes are far more than the largest drop in the previous cycle, and the negative effects of market price adjustment by purely market mechanisms are apparent.
From the rising stage of the food price volatility cycle in 2003-2010, the price of grain has been rising for eight years, and the rate of increase has slowed down. The difference in the growth rate of the two indices is also very small. This shows that at the current stage in the food market in China where the market mechanism has played a leading role in resource allocation, the endogenous rising power of food prices has basically been released, and the increase in food prices depends more on the influence of external factors, such as per capita income from economic growth. The increase has resulted in the need to improve the dietary structure, the increase in prices of production materials and the impact of rising labor costs.
Domestic grain prices downward pressure <br> <br> the new century, China's investment in agriculture continued to increase substantially, the central government spent "three rural" from 2004's 262.6 billion yuan rapid increase of 1 trillion yuan in 2011 About the average annual growth rate is as high as 21%, which significantly exceeds the growth rate of GPD over the same period. Among them, the “four subsidy†funds for grain direct subsidies, fine seed subsidies, agricultural machinery purchase subsidies, and comprehensive subsidies for agricultural resources were expanded from 14.5 billion yuan in 2004 to 2011. In the year 140.6 billion yuan. In addition, in 2010, the government has also significantly increased the minimum grain purchase price. In 2011, China’s total grain output reached a record 571.21 million tons, an increase of 4.5% over the previous year, and achieved the eighth consecutive year of production increase. It is also the fourth consecutive year that the output has stabilized at over 500 million tons, and the grain supply and the country’s grain reserves have been compared. adequate. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, if there is no major natural disaster, the balance of supply and demand for food has a solid basis for production and reserves.
According to the trend analysis of the profit rate of grain costs, the average cost-to-cost profit margins of China's three types of grain in 2006-2011 were 34.83%, 38.49%, 33.14%, 32.04%, 33.77%, and 31.07%, respectively, which was not only significantly higher than the growth rate of GPD over the same period. Speed, but far higher than the agricultural growth over the same period. Obviously, the high profitability of grain production will attract a lot of social capital to increase food production and supply, thereby lowering food prices and returning its profit margin to the average social profit rate. At the same time, a large amount of resources are devoted to the planting industry with low technological content, which leads to an overall decrease in the efficiency of resource allocation, affects the economic growth rate, reduces the growth rate of residents' income, and thus restrains the growth of grain consumption demand, which constitutes a greater pressure for food prices to fall.
During the international food prices down "five", the basis of the economic recovery in developed countries in Europe, America, Japan and other remains fragile, the European debt crisis may continue to deteriorate, the US unemployment rate is still hovering high, slow global per capita income growth, food consumption demand The possibility of a substantial increase is small. The total food supply, especially in developing countries, has a relatively large growth potential. When the prices of food crops are high, the interests will drive farmers in developing countries to grow food, open up new land, expand the area for grain cultivation, and increase the total grain output. Increase food supply.
In addition, high international food stocks will also curb food price increases. World food ending stocks in 2009/2010 reached 457 million tons, the highest level in eight years. At present, the global food stocks consumption ratio is about 20.9%, which is much higher than the safety level of 17%, and will also restrain the increase in food prices. Therefore, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the total international grain supply will exceed the total demand, which will bring greater pressure on the international food price market in the next 3-5 years. Soybean prices may be lowered to 400 USD/ton again. The price of corn may be It will fall below $170/ton, and wheat prices will likely drop to as low as $200/ton. Affected by the drop in food prices on the international market, domestic food prices, especially soybean prices, will drop significantly, driving down the prices of other foods.
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